{"id":1141,"date":"2006-09-27T22:27:26","date_gmt":"2006-09-27T21:27:26","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/messin.cz\/?p=1141"},"modified":"2016-01-31T22:27:49","modified_gmt":"2016-01-31T21:27:49","slug":"balkanalysis-com-interni-dokument-osn-rysuje-predpoved-hroziciho-nasili-v-kosovu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/messin.cz\/?p=1141","title":{"rendered":"Balkanalysis.com: Intern\u00ed dokument OSN r\u00fdsuje p\u0159edpov\u011b\u010f hroz\u00edc\u00edho n\u00e1sil\u00ed v Kosovu"},"content":{"rendered":"

Vysok\u00fd bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed \u010dinitel OSN v Kosovu odhalil, \u017ee KFOR<\/a> \u201eo\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1 rozs\u00e1hl\u00e9 n\u00e1siln\u00e9 akce a demonstrace uskute\u010dn\u011bn\u00e9 agresivn\u00edmi srbsk\u00fdmi a alb\u00e1nsk\u00fdmi skupinami,\u201c a\u017e vyvrchol\u00ed jedn\u00e1n\u00ed o pl\u00e1novan\u00e9 nez\u00e1vislosti Kosova.<\/p>\n

Agentura Makfax 22.z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed uvedla<\/a>, \u017ee bylo zat\u010deno sedm kosovsk\u00fdch Alb\u00e1nc\u016f, \u00fadajn\u011b zapojen\u00fdch do proti-srbsk\u00e9 vzpoury z b\u0159ezna 2004. Nicm\u00e9n\u011b \u010dty\u0159i ned\u00e1vn\u00e9 bombov\u00e9 \u00fatoky, po nich\u017e bylo n\u011bkolik Srb\u016f hospitalizov\u00e1no, vyvolaly sice odsouzen\u00ed OSN \u2013 ale t\u00edm to skon\u010dilo.<\/p>\n

It\u00e1lie p\u0159edala 1.z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed velen\u00ed nad sv\u00fdmi 2.500 KFOR voj\u00e1ky spolehliv\u00fdm N\u011bmc\u016fm. N\u011bmeck\u00fd gener\u00e1l Roland Kather p\u0159evzal velen\u00ed po gener\u00e1lu Giuseppe Valottovi a podle AKI<\/a> bude velet b\u011bhem l\u00e9ta 2007. Od N\u011bmc\u016f, mst\u00edc\u00edch se za jejich ne\u00fasp\u011bch ve 2. sv\u011btov\u00e9 v\u00e1lce \u00fasil\u00edm rozdrtit Srby v Kosovu, se o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1 nekompromisn\u00ed postup. P\u0159\u00edtomnost KFOR se v posledn\u00edch m\u011bs\u00edc\u00edch roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159ila do severn\u00edho Kosova, obydlen\u00e9ho Srby. Uveden\u00e9 zd\u016fvodn\u011bn\u00ed bylo chr\u00e1nit Srby, ale v\u011bt\u0161in\u011b anga\u017eovan\u00fdch pozorovatel\u016f je zcela z\u0159ejm\u00e9, \u017ee skute\u010dn\u00fdm c\u00edlem je prevence vyzbrojen\u00ed, \u010di pos\u00edlen\u00ed p\u0159ich\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00edho ze Srbska samotn\u00e9ho v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b budouc\u00edch alb\u00e1nsk\u00fdch \u00fatok\u016f na su\u017eovanou srbskou men\u0161inu.<\/p>\n

Spr\u00e1va OSN v Pri\u0161tin\u011b v\u00ed u\u017e dlouho o mo\u017enosti propuknut\u00ed v\u011bt\u0161\u00edho n\u00e1sil\u00ed v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b, \u017ee dv\u011b etnick\u00e9 skupiny nedok\u00e1\u017eou dos\u00e1hnout dohody, kter\u00e1 z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 sporem, zat\u00edmco p\u0159ich\u00e1z\u00ed kone\u010dn\u00fd term\u00edn pro z\u00e1v\u011bre\u010dn\u00e1 jedn\u00e1n\u00ed a mand\u00e1t UNMIK se ch\u00fdl\u00ed ke konci.<\/p>\n

Vnit\u0159n\u00ed dokumenty prozrazuj\u00ed, \u017ee spr\u00e1va Kosova UNMIK dlouho diskutovala mo\u017en\u00e9 sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159e, kter\u00e9 by se mohly zhmotnit koncem roku. Existence t\u011bchto zpr\u00e1v ukazuje, \u017ee OSN a p\u0159\u00edbuzn\u00fd person\u00e1l mise UNMIK diskutovali a debatovali mo\u017en\u00e9 propuknut\u00ed n\u00e1sil\u00ed ve shod\u011b s mo\u017en\u00fdm v\u00fdsledkem rozhovor\u016f o kone\u010dn\u00e9m statusu.<\/p>\n

Nejv\u00edce proslavenou zpr\u00e1vou byl intern\u00ed dokument UNHCR o uprchl\u00edc\u00edch. Na v\u011bdom\u00ed byl d\u00e1n v lednu 2006 (a\u010dkoli p\u0159esn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed datum nebylo pozd\u011bji dod\u00e1no) a zp\u016fsobil rozruch v m\u00edstn\u00edch i ciz\u00edch m\u00e9di\u00edch, kdy\u017e byl citov\u00e1n pozd\u011bji na ja\u0159e.<\/p>\n

Zpr\u00e1va ukazovala, \u017ee skupina pro uprchl\u00edky d\u011bl\u00e1 n\u00e1hradn\u00ed pl\u00e1n a\u017e pro 70.000 srbsk\u00fdch uprchl\u00edk\u016f (z celkov\u00fdch 100.000), kte\u0159\u00ed budou nuceni uprchnout v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b budouc\u00edch pot\u00ed\u017e\u00ed. UNHCR nejprve na\u0159\u010den\u00ed odm\u00edtl, pak v\u00fdznam zpr\u00e1vy bagatelizoval t\u00edm, \u017ee j\u00ed vyd\u00e1val za \u201erutinn\u00ed\u201c \u010d\u00e1st diskutov\u00e1n\u00ed a nikoli politiky. Nakonec po ustoupen\u00ed po\u010d\u00e1te\u010dn\u00edho rozho\u0159\u010den\u00ed, agentury jako Reuters odkazovaly na text v bizarn\u00edm p\u0159ekroucen\u00ed, jako t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 na n\u011bjak\u00e9 opat\u0159en\u00ed k vytv\u00e1\u0159en\u00ed d\u016fv\u011bry, kter\u00e9 neukazuje obavy, ale sp\u00ed\u0161e promy\u0161lenost a p\u0159ipravenost \u00fa\u0159ad\u016f.<\/p>\n

Av\u0161ak druh\u00fd intern\u00ed dokument od civiln\u00ed policie OSN byl balkanalysis.com zp\u0159\u00edstupn\u011bn p\u0159ed n\u011bkolika m\u011bs\u00edci. Neofici\u00e1ln\u00ed zpr\u00e1va z \u00fanora 2006 zva\u017euje p\u011bt r\u016fzn\u00fdch sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159\u016f, kter\u00e9 by se mohly vyvinout ve sporn\u00e9 provincii b\u011bhem listopadu. Hypot\u00e9zy zva\u017euj\u00ed n\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00ed:<\/p>\n

1) rozhodnut\u00ed o pln\u00e9 nez\u00e1vislosti v listopadu;<\/p>\n

2) \u201ev\u00edce ne\u017e samospr\u00e1va, m\u00e9n\u011b ne\u017e nez\u00e1vislost\u201c;<\/p>\n

3) prodlou\u017een\u00ed rozhovor\u016f do roku 2007;<\/p>\n

4) opakov\u00e1n\u00ed jugosl\u00e1vsk\u00e9 zku\u0161enosti z 90.let, kdy ozbrojen\u00ed Alb\u00e1nci spustili na venkov\u011b \u00fatoky proti \u00fa\u0159ad\u016fm (v tomto p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b by u\u017e \u0161lo u\u017e o \u00fa\u0159ady mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed)<\/p>\n

V\u0161echny tyto sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159e byly od t\u00e9 doby diskutov\u00e1ny v m\u00e9di\u00edch a ka\u017ed\u00fd si na\u0161el zast\u00e1nce i odp\u016frce u r\u016fzn\u00fdch mezin\u00e1rodn\u00edch mocnost\u00ed a sil. Co je ov\u0161em zaj\u00edmav\u00e9 na tomto dokumentu je skute\u010dnost, \u017ee ud\u00e1losti roku 2006 prok\u00e1zaly jeho spr\u00e1vnost. Obecn\u011b \u0159e\u010deno, \u017e\u00e1dn\u00fd z mo\u017en\u00fdch sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159\u016f nevede ke \u0161\u0165astn\u00fdm v\u00fdsledk\u016fm, p\u0159inejmen\u0161\u00edm pokud se t\u00fdk\u00e1 bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed situace. Vezm\u011bte si v\u00fdsledek mo\u017enosti 2:<\/p>\n

\u201ePo zdlouhav\u00fdch jedn\u00e1n\u00edch a kyvadlov\u00e9 diplomacii zakon\u010dil pov\u011b\u0159enec OSN Marti Ahtisaari jedn\u00e1n\u00ed v\u00fdsledkem, kter\u00fd je vyv\u00e1\u017een\u00fd v\u016f\u010di \u010dlen\u016fm kontaktn\u00ed skupiny. Kosovu je ud\u011blena v\u00edce ne\u017e samospr\u00e1va, m\u00e9n\u011b ne\u017e nez\u00e1vislost. Kdy\u017e je v\u00fdsledek jedn\u00e1n\u00ed ofici\u00e1ln\u011b vyhl\u00e1\u0161en, extr\u00e9mn\u00ed frakce b\u00fdval\u00e9 UCK se ch\u00e1pe zbran\u00ed a zahajuje strategii \u201eude\u0159 a ute\u010d\u201c proti IC (\u201emezin\u00e1rodn\u00edmu spole\u010denstv\u00ed\u201c). Toto je ov\u0161em neochotno ve\u0159ejn\u011b prohl\u00e1sit, kdo je za \u00fatoky.<\/p>\n

Kosov\u0161t\u00ed Alb\u00e1nci prohl\u00e1sili, \u017ee necht\u011bj\u00ed nic m\u00e9n\u011b, ne\u017e \u00faplnou nez\u00e1vislost, kter\u00e9 b\u011blehradsk\u00e9 autority ne\u00fastupn\u011b oponuj\u00ed. Z\u00e1pad podporuje d\u0159\u00edve jmenovan\u00e9, ale pokud bude poskytnuta nez\u00e1vislost, intern\u00ed zpr\u00e1va p\u0159edpokl\u00e1d\u00e1 n\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00ed v\u00fdvoj:<\/p>\n

\u201eSrbov\u00e9 nep\u0159ij\u00edmaj\u00ed \u00faplnou nez\u00e1vislost. Srbov\u00e9 ovl\u00e1daj\u00ed \u010d\u00e1st rozd\u011blen\u00e9 Mitrovice severn\u011b od \u0159eky Ibar. Mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed a m\u00edstn\u00ed \u00fa\u0159ady jsou ohledn\u011b p\u0159edejit\u00ed rozd\u011blen\u00ed bezmocn\u00e9, b\u00fdval\u00ed bojovn\u00edci UCK se p\u0159ipravuj\u00ed na otev\u0159enou akci proti srbsk\u00e9mu odporu na severu, bez ohledu na m\u00edrn\u00e9 alb\u00e1nsk\u00e9 \u00fasil\u00ed o p\u0159\u00edm\u00fd dialog. Z\u00e1rove\u0148 s t\u00edm p\u00e1chaj\u00ed extr\u00e9mn\u00ed frakce kosovsk\u00fdch Alb\u00e1nc\u016f taktiku \u201eude\u0159 a ute\u010d\u201c proti mezin\u00e1rodn\u00edmu spole\u010denstv\u00ed. Toto \u00fatoky odsoud\u00ed, v\u011bt\u0161inou s pokusem shodit vinu na vzbou\u0159en\u00e9 Srby ji\u017en\u011b od Ibaru, kte\u0159\u00ed jsou rozlad\u011bni rozhodnut\u00edm o nez\u00e1vislosti.\u201c<\/p>\n

T\u0159et\u00ed sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 \u2013 odlo\u017een\u00ed rozhovor\u016f \u2013 je tak\u00e9 pova\u017eov\u00e1n za alternativu zachov\u00e1n\u00ed tv\u00e1\u0159e. N\u011bkolik ned\u00e1vn\u00fdch \u010dl\u00e1nk\u016f n\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00edch po n\u00e1v\u0161t\u011bv\u011b prezidenta Tadi\u010de ve Washingtonu tvrdilo, \u017ee Bushova administrativa zdr\u017e\u00ed rozhodnut\u00ed o Kosovu dokud nebude po srbsk\u00fdch volb\u00e1ch v nad\u011bji, \u017ee radik\u00e1ln\u00ed srbsk\u00e1 strana nebude moci vyu\u017e\u00edt Kosovo k uchopen\u00ed moci. V tomto kontextu vypad\u00e1 zaj\u00edmav\u011b p\u0159\u00edpadn\u00fd v\u00fdvoj po t\u0159et\u00ed mo\u017enosti, jak ho tak\u00e9 p\u0159edv\u00edd\u00e1 dokument OSN z \u00fanora 2006:<\/p>\n

\u201eKoncem listopadu 2006 a za\u010d\u00e1tkem prosince rozhovory o kone\u010dn\u00e9m stavu sl\u00e1bnou a kontaktn\u00ed skupina navrhne p\u0159eru\u0161en\u00ed a\u017e do Nov\u00e9ho roku. Kosov\u0161t\u00ed Alb\u00e1nci vykazuj\u00ed zn\u00e1mky frustrace s t\u00edm, \u017ee po\u017eaduj\u00ed ud\u011bl\u00e1n\u00ed dohody, nicm\u00e9n\u011b ned\u00e1vn\u00e9 bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed incidenty ovliv\u0148uj\u00edc\u00ed komunity men\u0161in, svobodu pohybu a jin\u00e9 z\u00e1le\u017eitosti, stanovily p\u0159ek\u00e1\u017eku (\u00faskal\u00ed\/k\u00e1men \u00farazu) pro vl\u00e1du v\u011bt\u0161iny.\u201c<\/p>\n

S p\u0159ibli\u017euj\u00edc\u00edm se listopadem uvid\u00edme, kter\u00fd z t\u011bchto sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159\u016f se zhmotn\u00ed. V ka\u017ed\u00e9m p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b je pou\u010dn\u00e9 poznamenat, \u017ee OSN si jich byla u\u017e n\u011bjakou dobu v\u011bdoma. V\u011bt\u0161\u00ed politick\u00e1 rozhodnut\u00ed, kter\u00e1 se objev\u00ed, by m\u011bla b\u00fdt analyzov\u00e1na ve sv\u011btle tohoto uv\u011bdom\u011bn\u00ed.<\/p>\n

P\u0159eklad Messin, 27.9. 2006 ZDROJ<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Vysok\u00fd bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed \u010dinitel OSN v Kosovu odhalil, \u017ee KFOR \u201eo\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1 rozs\u00e1hl\u00e9 n\u00e1siln\u00e9 akce a demonstrace uskute\u010dn\u011bn\u00e9 agresivn\u00edmi srbsk\u00fdmi a alb\u00e1nsk\u00fdmi skupinami,\u201c a\u017e vyvrchol\u00ed jedn\u00e1n\u00ed o pl\u00e1novan\u00e9 nez\u00e1vislosti Kosova. Agentura Makfax 22.z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed uvedla, \u017ee bylo zat\u010deno…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":175,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[3],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/messin.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1141"}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/messin.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/messin.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/messin.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/messin.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1141"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"http:\/\/messin.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1141\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1142,"href":"http:\/\/messin.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1141\/revisions\/1142"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/messin.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/175"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/messin.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1141"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/messin.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1141"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/messin.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1141"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}