{"id":1202,"date":"2007-09-06T22:54:51","date_gmt":"2007-09-06T21:54:51","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/messin.cz\/?p=1202"},"modified":"2016-01-31T22:55:17","modified_gmt":"2016-01-31T21:55:17","slug":"odhadovani-celkoveho-poctu-obeti-kosovske-valky-osm-let-nepresnosti","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/messin.cz\/?p=1202","title":{"rendered":"Odhadov\u00e1n\u00ed celkov\u00e9ho po\u010dtu ob\u011bt\u00ed kosovsk\u00e9 v\u00e1lky: Osm let nep\u0159esnost\u00ed"},"content":{"rendered":"

Defense and Forreign Affairs Special Analysis \u2013 24.srpen 2007 (str. 3-6)<\/em><\/p>\n

Anal\u00fdza zam\u011bstnanc\u016f GIS<\/strong> (The Global Information System<\/a>).<\/p>\n

The New York Times psaly v roce 1999: \u201eetnick\u00e9 nap\u011bt\u00ed z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 na vysok\u00e9 \u00farovni v Kosovu, kde bylo odhadem zabito 10.000 osob v konfliktu, kter\u00fd za\u010dal z\u00e1krokem proti kosovsk\u00fdm Alb\u00e1nc\u016fm, po\u017eaduj\u00edc\u00edm nez\u00e1vislost na Jugosl\u00e1vii.\u201c (1) O osm let pozd\u011bji The New York Times po\u0159\u00e1d informovaly o \u201ea\u017e 10.000 lidech, v\u011bt\u0161inou etnick\u00fdch Alb\u00e1nc\u00edch, odhadem zabit\u00fdch v konfliktu mezi alb\u00e1nsk\u00fdmi povstalci a jugosl\u00e1vsk\u00fdmi silami\u201c. (2)<\/p>\n

The New York Times hl\u00e1s\u00ed s p\u0159esnost\u00ed, \u017ee na sportovn\u00ed utk\u00e1n\u00ed na stadionu Yankee p\u0159i\u0161lo 56.253 osob, ale po osmi letech st\u00e1le pouze odhaduje, kolik lid\u00ed zem\u0159elo v Kosovu, p\u0159esto\u017ee nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00ed odhadovan\u00e9 \u010d\u00edslo ob\u011bt\u00ed by nezaplnilo na zm\u00edn\u011bn\u00e9m stadionu ani \u010dtvrtinu m\u00edst.<\/p>\n

The New York Times nejsou samy. Rychl\u00fd pr\u016fzkum zpravodajstv\u00ed a agenturn\u00edch zpr\u00e1v odhal\u00ed stovky \u010dl\u00e1nk\u016f, uv\u00e1d\u011bj\u00edc\u00edch podobn\u00e9 informace: \u201eOdhadem 10.000 lid\u00ed, hlavn\u011b Alb\u00e1nc\u016f, zem\u0159elo v kosovsk\u00e9 v\u00e1lce\u201c\u2026 \u201eV\u00e1lka v letech 1998-1999 zabila odhadem 10.000 lid\u00ed , hlavn\u011b etnick\u00fdch Alb\u00e1nc\u016f\u201c\u2026 \u201eA\u017e 10.000 osob, v\u011bt\u0161inou etnick\u00fdch Alb\u00e1nc\u016f, zahynulo v letech 1998-1999 ve v\u00e1lce mezi etnick\u00fdmi alb\u00e1nsk\u00fdmi separatisty a srbsk\u00fdmi bezpe\u010dnostn\u00edmi silami.\u201c\u2026 \u201eKosovsk\u00e1 v\u00e1lka zabila odhadem 10.000 lid\u00ed, hlavn\u011b etnick\u00fdch Alb\u00e1nc\u016f.\u201c<\/p>\n

Zaj\u00edmavou v\u00fdjimkou byla agentura Reuters, kter\u00e1 ned\u00e1vno opustila odhad 10.000 a uvedla: \u201enez\u00e1visl\u00e9 odhady prohla\u0161uj\u00ed, \u017ee 7.500 a\u017e 12.000 lid\u00ed, hlavn\u011b etnick\u00fdch Alb\u00e1nc\u016f, zem\u0159elo b\u011bhem srbsk\u00e9 v\u00e1lky proti partyz\u00e1n\u016fm\u201c.<\/p>\n

Prvn\u00ed osobou, kter\u00fd vyslovila obecn\u011b udr\u017eovan\u00fd odhad 10.000 mrtv\u00fdch, byl britsk\u00fd ministr zahrani\u010d\u00ed Geoff Hoon, na tiskov\u00e9 konferenci 17.\u010dervna 1999, pouh\u00fdch p\u011bt dn\u016f po rozm\u00edst\u011bn\u00ed vojsk NATO v Kosovu. (3)<\/p>\n

O \u0161est m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f pozd\u011bji ofici\u00e1ln\u011b p\u0159ijalo odhad 10.000 i ministerstvo zahrani\u010d\u00ed USA. Ministerstvo ve sv\u00e9 spr\u00e1v\u011b uv\u00e1d\u00ed: \u201e10.listopadu 1999 \u0159ekla Rad\u011b bezpe\u010dnosti OSN hlavn\u00ed \u017ealobkyn\u011b ICTY Carla Del Ponte, \u017ee jej\u00ed kancel\u00e1\u0159 obdr\u017eela zpr\u00e1vy o v\u00edce jak 11.000 zabit\u00fdch v 529 hl\u00e1\u0161en\u00fdch hromadn\u00fdch hrobech a m\u00edstech zab\u00edjen\u00ed v Kosovu. Podle \u017ealobkyn\u011b bylo exhumov\u00e1no 2.108 t\u011bl ze 195 z 529 zn\u00e1m\u00fdch hromadn\u00fdch hrob\u016f. To nazna\u010duje je\u0161t\u011b a\u017e 6.000 t\u011bl v masov\u00fdch hrobech Kosova, pokud 334 dosud neprozkouman\u00fdch hrob\u016f bude obsahovat podobn\u00e9 mno\u017estv\u00ed ob\u011bt\u00ed. K tomu v\u0161emu mus\u00ed b\u00fdt p\u0159id\u00e1ny t\u0159i d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9 kategorie ob\u011bt\u00ed: 1. Ti zahraban\u00ed v hrobech, jejich\u017e um\u00edst\u011bn\u00ed nen\u00ed zn\u00e1mo. 2. Jak hl\u00e1s\u00ed zpr\u00e1vy ICTY, existuje v\u00fdznamn\u00e9 mno\u017estv\u00ed m\u00edst, kde nelze spo\u010d\u00edtat p\u0159esn\u00e9 mno\u017estv\u00ed t\u011bl. 3. Ob\u011bti, jejich t\u011bla byla sp\u00e1lena, nebo zni\u010dena srbsk\u00fdmi silami. Zpr\u00e1vy z tisku a od sv\u011bdk\u016f poskytuj\u00ed d\u016fv\u011bryhodn\u00e9 podklady o ni\u010den\u00ed d\u016fkaz\u016f srbsk\u00fdmi jednotkami po cel\u00e9m Kosovu i dokonce v sam\u00e9m Srbsku. Po\u010det ob\u011bt\u00ed, jejich\u017e t\u011bla byla sp\u00e1lena, \u010di zni\u010dena nemus\u00ed b\u00fdt nikdy zn\u00e1m, ale dostatek objeven\u00fdch d\u016fkaz\u016f vede k z\u00e1v\u011bru, \u017ee srbsk\u00fdmi silami bylo pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b zabito 10.000 kosovsk\u00fdch Alb\u00e1nc\u016f.\u201c (4)<\/p>\n

Jak se uk\u00e1zalo, po\u010d\u00e1te\u010dn\u00edch 2.108 t\u011bl nalezen\u00fdch vy\u0161et\u0159ovateli ICTY se nep\u0159em\u011bnilo v t\u011bch 6.000 o\u010dek\u00e1van\u00fdch US ministerstvem zahrani\u010d\u00ed. Vy\u0161et\u0159ovatel\u00e9 prov\u011b\u0159ovali nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed hroby jako prvn\u00ed, tak\u017ee kdy\u017e ICTY v l\u00e9t\u011b 2000 ukon\u010dil exhumace, celkov\u00e9 mno\u017estv\u00ed nalezen\u00fdch t\u011bl bylo 2.788. (5)<\/p>\n

P\u0159esto\u017ee odhad US ministerstva zahrani\u010d\u00ed o \u201easi 6.000 t\u011blech v hromadn\u00fdch hrobech Kosova\u201c byl nadsazen t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 o 115 procent, toto se nikdy neobt\u011b\u017eovalo revidovat sv\u016fj celkov\u00fd odhad o 10.000 ob\u011btech. Pokud jde o dal\u0161\u00ed kategorie zmi\u0148ovan\u00e9 ve zpr\u00e1v\u011b, i kdyby se n\u011bkdo pokou\u0161el skr\u00fdt d\u016fkazy, ob\u011bti by musely b\u00fdt zaznamen\u00e1ny jako poh\u0159e\u0161ovan\u00e9, bez ohledu na to, zda byly nalezeny jejich poz\u016fstatky, \u010di nikoli.<\/p>\n

Mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed \u010cerven\u00fd k\u0159\u00ed\u017e uv\u00e1d\u00ed ve sv\u00e9m posledn\u00edm s\u010d\u00edt\u00e1n\u00ed 2.047 zmizel\u00fdch osob v souvislosti s v\u00e1lkou 1998-1999, v\u010detn\u011b p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 500 Srb\u016f, 1.300 Alb\u00e1nc\u016f a 200 p\u0159\u00edslu\u0161n\u00edk\u016f jin\u00fdch etnick\u00fdch skupin. (6)<\/p>\n

Americk\u00fd statistik Patrick Ball, sv\u011bd\u010d\u00edc\u00ed jako expert na stran\u011b ob\u017ealoby u ICTY p\u0159i procesu s b\u00fdval\u00fdm srbsk\u00fdm prezidentem Milanem Milutinovi\u010dem v Haagu, ned\u00e1vno vrhnul trochu sv\u011btla na metodiku odhadov\u00e1n\u00ed po\u010dtu kosovsk\u00fdch ob\u011bt\u00ed. B\u011bhem sv\u011bdectv\u00ed Ball p\u0159ipustil, \u017ee nejnov\u011bj\u0161\u00ed zdokumentovan\u00fd celkov\u00fd po\u010det mrtv\u00fdch a poh\u0159e\u0161ovan\u00fdch lid\u00ed souvisej\u00edc\u00ed z kosovskou v\u00e1lkou v letech 1998-1999 je men\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e 5.000. Nicm\u00e9n\u011b odhadoval, \u017ee skute\u010dn\u00fd po\u010det ob\u011bt\u00ed byl o hodn\u011b vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed: 10.356. Ball uvedl, \u017ee jeho odhad je zalo\u017een na \u201et\u011bch nezdokumentovan\u00fdch, kter\u00e9 s velkou pravd\u011bpodobnost\u00ed ani u\u017e zdokumentov\u00e1ny nebudou\u201c. (7)<\/p>\n

Kdy\u017e ho Milutinovi\u010d\u016fv pr\u00e1vn\u00edk \u017e\u00e1dal, aby vysv\u011btlil, jak se m\u00e9n\u011b ne\u017e 5.000 dolo\u017een\u00fdch p\u0159\u00edpad\u016f mrtv\u00fdch a poh\u0159e\u0161ovan\u00fdch mohlo zm\u011bnit na odhad v\u00edce ne\u017e 10.000 \u00famrt\u00ed, Ball odv\u011btil: \u201eje velmi ojedin\u011bl\u00e9, \u017ee jsou lid\u00e9 po takov\u00fdchto masov\u00fdch zv\u011brstvech identifikov\u00e1ni, a to z mnoha d\u016fvod\u016f; nap\u0159\u00edklad rodiny nevid\u00ed d\u016fvod k informov\u00e1n\u00ed, t\u011bch nen\u00ed mnoho \u2013 ohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00edm z\u00edskaj\u00ed toti\u017e jen m\u00e1lo, proto\u017ee v\u0161ichni sv\u011bdci utekli, nebo jsou pry\u010d. Rodiny mohly opustit zemi. Existuje mnoho r\u016fzn\u00fdch d\u016fvod\u016f a souvislost\u00ed, pro\u010d n\u011bco ohla\u0161uje jen relativn\u011b m\u00e1lo lid\u00ed.\u201c (8)<\/p>\n

Ball\u016fv p\u0159edpoklad, \u017ee v\u011bt\u0161ina zab\u00edjen\u00ed nebyla ohl\u00e1\u0161ena je nicm\u00e9n\u011b vyvr\u00e1cen jeho vlastn\u00ed zku\u0161enost\u00ed. ICTY poskytl jeho expertn\u00edmu t\u00fdmu v\u00edce ne\u017e 10.000 zpr\u00e1v (neov\u011b\u0159en\u00fdch p\u0159\u00edpad\u016f) o zab\u00edjen\u00ed v Kosovu. Jeho t\u00fdm zpr\u00e1vy prov\u011b\u0159il a shledal, \u017ee jen 4.400 se t\u00fdkalo se specifick\u00fdch jednotlivc\u016f. (9). Probl\u00e9m, se kter\u00fdm se Ball\u016fv t\u00fdm setk\u00e1val, nebyl ten, \u017ee by zab\u00edjen\u00ed nebyla ohla\u0161ov\u00e1na, ale naopak byla hl\u00e1\u0161ena nadm\u011brn\u011b. Stejn\u00ed jednotlivci byli hl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed zas a zase, tak\u017ee se v\u011bt\u0161ina zpr\u00e1v opakovala.<\/p>\n

Milutinovi\u010d\u016fv pr\u00e1vn\u00edk vyu\u017eil Ballovo tvrzen\u00ed o tom, \u017ee v\u011bt\u0161ina ob\u011bt\u00ed nebyla nahl\u00e1\u0161ena t\u00edm, \u017ee se ho zeptal jak byl schopen ur\u010dit, kdo byl nahl\u00e1\u0161en a kdo nebyl? Ball odpov\u011bd\u011bl: \u201eDobr\u00e1, ve skute\u010dnosti v\u011bt\u0161ina zpr\u00e1v nem\u016f\u017ee nikdy b\u00fdt p\u0159esn\u011b analyzov\u00e1na, pane. Hodnov\u011brnost hl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed mus\u00ed b\u00fdt v\u017edy odhadov\u00e1na, tak\u017ee m\u00e1te pravdu, nikdy nem\u00e1m p\u0159\u00edm\u00fd d\u016fkaz o skute\u010dn\u00e9 hodnov\u011brnosti zpr\u00e1vy, ale to nem\u00e1 ani nikdo v \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9m jin\u00e9m st\u00e1t\u011b na sv\u011bt\u011b, proto\u017ee jedin\u00e1 cesta jak toto analyzovat, a\u0165 ve \u0160v\u00e9dsku, nejlep\u0161\u00edm registru na sv\u011bt\u011b, nebo na n\u011bjak\u00e9m jin\u00e9m m\u00edst\u011b, kde je t\u011b\u017ek\u00e9 dokumentovat, je odhadnout celkov\u00fd \u00fahrn a potom se pod\u00edvat na va\u0161e po\u010dty a rozd\u011blit je do celkov\u00e9ho po\u010dtu. P\u0159irozen\u011b, hodnota zpr\u00e1v je v p\u0159esn\u00e9m smyslu nezm\u011b\u0159iteln\u00e1, tak\u017ee m\u00e1te pravdu, tyto data nem\u00e1m, ale to je hra se slovy.\u201c (10)<\/p>\n

Klam t\u00e9to p\u0159edstavy je snadno odhalen. Stejn\u00e1 logika by mohla b\u00fdt pou\u017eita k v\u00fdrob\u011b vlny zlo\u010dinnosti nap\u0159\u00edklad v Nizozemsku. V roce 2006 tam bylo ohl\u00e1\u0161eno 160 vra\u017ed. Ale p\u0159i p\u0159edpokladu, \u017ee bylo nahl\u00e1\u0161eno jen jedno zabit\u00ed ze t\u0159\u00ed, by bylo mo\u017en\u00e9 \u0159\u00edci, \u017ee tam ve skute\u010dnosti do\u0161lo ke 480 vra\u017ed\u00e1m. Ale pro\u010d z\u016fstat u tohoto po\u010dtu? Bylo by stejn\u011b dob\u0159e mo\u017en\u00e9 \u0159\u00edci, \u017ee bylo ohl\u00e1\u0161eno jen jedno zabit\u00ed z p\u011bti, co\u017e by umo\u017enilo tvrzen\u00ed, \u017ee bylo zavra\u017ed\u011bno 800 lid\u00ed. Tak\u00e9 by bylo mo\u017en\u00e9 \u0159\u00edci, \u017ee tam bylo tolik vra\u017ed, kolik si dok\u00e1\u017eete p\u0159edstavit; v\u0161echno co by bylo nutn\u00e9, by bylo vybrat si to \u201espr\u00e1vn\u00e9\u201c hl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed a zn\u00e1sobit ho po\u010dtem zdokumentovan\u00fdch p\u0159\u00edpad\u016f.<\/p>\n

Britsk\u00fd l\u00e9ka\u0159sk\u00fd \u010dasopis The Lancet, kter\u00fd skv\u011ble (a pon\u011bkud nep\u0159esn\u011b) obvinil Ameri\u010dany veden\u00e9 koali\u010dn\u00ed jednotky ze zabit\u00ed p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 70.000 a\u017e 500.000 ir\u00e1ck\u00fdch civilist\u016f od roku 2003, pou\u017eil pon\u011bkud lep\u0161\u00ed argumentaci. Zpr\u00e1va \u010dasopisu odhadovala celkov\u00e9 mno\u017estv\u00ed ob\u011bt\u00ed kosovsk\u00e9 v\u00e1lky kolem 12.000 mrtv\u00fdch. Analytik p\u0159i\u0161el k tomuto \u010d\u00edslu t\u00edm, \u017ee prozkoumal od \u00fanora 1998 do \u010dervna 1999 celkem 1.197 dom\u00e1cnost\u00ed; na z\u00e1klad\u011b toho, \u017ee 67 ze 105 \u00famrt\u00ed hl\u00e1\u0161en\u00fdch t\u00edmto popula\u010dn\u00edm vzorkem bylo p\u0159isouzeno traumatu souvisej\u00edc\u00edmu s v\u00e1lkou, aplikovali stejnou \u00famrtnost na zbytek kosovsk\u00e9 populace a dostali \u010d\u00edslo 12.000. (11)<\/p>\n

Po\u010d\u00edt\u00e1n\u00ed re\u00e1ln\u00e9ho po\u010dtu mrtv\u00fdch a chyb\u011bj\u00edc\u00edch kosovsk\u00e9 v\u00e1lky nen\u00ed nep\u0159ekonateln\u00fd \u00fakol. Po n\u011bkolik let byl po\u010det ob\u011bt\u00ed bosensk\u00e9 v\u00e1lky odhadov\u00e1n na v\u00edce ne\u017e 250.000 lid\u00ed, ale n\u011bkolik let pe\u010dliv\u00e9ho zkoum\u00e1n\u00ed a dokumentov\u00e1n\u00ed uk\u00e1zalo, \u017ee skute\u010dn\u00e9 ztr\u00e1ty na \u017eivotech byly pravd\u011bpodobn\u011bji kolem 100.000. (12)<\/p>\n

Odhadovan\u00e9 po\u010dty mrtv\u00fdch, a\u0165 u\u017e v Kosovu, Bosn\u011b, \u010di Ir\u00e1ku, jsou notoricky nep\u0159esn\u00e9 a n\u00e1chyln\u00e9 k politick\u00e9 manipulaci. V\u0161eobecn\u011b p\u0159ij\u00edman\u00fd bosensk\u00fd odhad byl nav\u00fd\u0161en skoro o 150 procent. V Kosovu \u010din\u00ed rozpor mezi n\u00edzk\u00fdm (7.500) a vysok\u00fdm (12.000) odhadem 35,7 procent, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e i ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed odhad se zd\u00e1 jist\u011b velmi nav\u00fd\u0161en.<\/p>\n

Skute\u010dnost, \u017ee kosovsk\u00e1 v\u00e1lka nem\u00e1 ani po osmi letech p\u0159esn\u00fd po\u010det ob\u011bt\u00ed, nem\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt p\u0159i\u010d\u00edt\u00e1na ni\u010demu jin\u00e9mu, ne\u017e nedostatku politick\u00e9 v\u016fle.<\/p>\n

Kosovsk\u00e1 v\u00e1lka byla krat\u0161\u00ed n\u011b\u017e ta bosensk\u00e1 a mno\u017estv\u00ed ob\u011bt\u00ed bylo o hodn\u011b ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed, p\u0159esto jsme nevid\u011bli pr\u016fzkum a dokumenta\u010dn\u00ed projekt pro Kosovo, kter\u00fd prob\u011bhl v Bosn\u011b. Nikdo neprojevil skute\u010dnou snahu dokumentovat p\u0159esn\u00fd po\u010det ob\u011bt\u00ed. KFOR, UNMIK, ICTY, sd\u011blovac\u00ed prost\u0159edky a zahrani\u010dn\u00ed vl\u00e1dy a kosovsko-alb\u00e1nsk\u00e9 \u00fa\u0159ady jsou dokonale \u0161\u0165astn\u00e9, \u017ee se mohou spol\u00e9hat na odhadovan\u00e9 po\u010dty ob\u011bt\u00ed, bez ohledu na to, jak pochybn\u00e1 metodologie se za nimi skr\u00fdv\u00e1.<\/p>\n

Nedostatek politick\u00e9 v\u016fle ur\u010dit p\u0159esn\u011b po\u010det ob\u011bt\u00ed m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt p\u0159isouzen strachu, \u017ee kosovsk\u00fd odhadovan\u00fd po\u010det ob\u011bt\u00ed by se mohl uk\u00e1zat hrub\u011b nafouknut\u00fd, jako byl ten p\u016fvodn\u00ed v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b v\u00e1lky v Bosn\u011b. Takov\u00e9 odhalen\u00ed by bylo velmi ne\u017e\u00e1douc\u00ed v mnoha kruz\u00edch, proto\u017ee by mohlo podkop\u00e1vat d\u016fvody pro nez\u00e1vislost Kosova na Srbsku a z\u00e1rove\u0148 zp\u011btn\u011b zpochybnit z\u00e1sah NATO v roce 1999.<\/p>\n

P\u0159eklad Messin, 6.9.2007 <\/em>Zdroj<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n

Footnotes:
\n1. The New York Times; November 30, 1999: 3 Serbs Attacked, One Fatally, By a Mob of Ethnic Albanians.
\n2. The New York Times; March 22, 2007: Envoy Calls for Independence for Kosovo Ahead of a UN Debate.
\n3. The Washington Post; June 18, 1999, Friday, Final Edition: Kosovo’s Albanians Returning In Droves; Serb-Led Offensive Took 10,000 Lives, Britain Estimates.
\n4. Ethnic Cleansing in Kosovo: An Accounting; US State Department Report, December 1999.
\n5. The Guardian (UK); Friday, August 18, 2000: Serb killings ‚exaggerated‘ by west; Claims of up to 100,000 ethnic Albanians massacred in Kosovo revised to under 3,000 as exhumations near end.
\n6. Beta News Agency; Fate of missing still unaccounted for. June 30, 2007, 09:40 (CET)
\n7. Milutinovic Trial Transcript; Tuesday, February 20, 2007; Pg. 10318
\n8. Ibid.
\n9. Killings and Refugee Flow in Kosovo, March. June 1999; A Report to the International Criminal Tribunal for the Former Yugoslavia; January 3, 2002; Patrick Ball, Wendy Betts, Fritz Scheuren, Jana Dudukovich, and Jana Asher; Pg. 6.
\n10. Milutinovic Trial Transcript; Tuesday, February 20, 2007; Pg. 10319 \u2013 10320
\n11. The Lancet; Vol. 355, June 24, 2000.
\n12. Tabeau\/Bijak expert report to the ICTY; 2004.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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